According to artificial intelligence experts, there is a world in which this new technology will solve all our problems, and another world in which it will end the existence of the human race.
Throughout 2023, we have seen speculation oscillate between these two scenarios, and there is no doubt that 2024 will continue on the same path. After all, it has been nearly a decade since “stars” like Elon Musk and Stephen Hawking spoke about how “AI could end humanity.” So the whole question is whether we are really any closer to that day.
In a post last April, computer scientists Scott Aaronson and Boaz Barak, of the University of Texas and Harvard, narrowed down future scenarios to just five — and if one of those scenarios is a classic dystopia in which humanity no longer has a place, there will be another. The scenario was one in which AI progress was…content to stagnate.
This is actually a possibility we probably don't talk about much, as New Scientist summarized in December. “AI could be halted by its voracious demand for resources.” One could, for example, imagine that the amount of electricity and water needed to run and cool the amount of computer servers required would “halt the development” of artificial intelligence. Or “we may run out of data to train future models,” which means the technology will never reach the level needed to deliver on all its promises.
Between the scenario of destruction and the scenario of stagnation, the scenario of utopia remains. This is Barak and Aaronson's “Futurama” scenario, in which tomorrow's civilization differs significantly from ours, but in a positive sense. “Artificial intelligence is being used to reduce poverty and ensure that a greater portion of humanity has access to food, healthcare, education and economic opportunities. There may be problems caused by human error or negligence, but the inhabitants of this planet will be happier overall. Perhaps we will see more clearly at the end of 2024…
