The explosions caused by Israel in Iran on Thursday evening do not change relations between the two countries nor the situation in Gaza, according to an expert’s analysis.
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Ferry de Kerckhove, a former Canadian ambassador, told TVA Nouvelles: “This does not change anything in relations between Iran and Israel, but I think everyone succeeded in stopping the escalation as the international community wanted.”
According to Mr. de Kerckhove, nothing has changed in Gaza either, where the situation remains worrying.
The explosions heard by the Iranians very early Friday morning did not cause any major damage, and most of the drones were reportedly successfully shot down by the air defense system.
The consequences diminished
According to Dominique Trinquand, former head of the military mission in the French delegation to the United Nations, the Iranians are voluntarily minimizing the effects of the Israeli attack, which some senior American officials described as retaliation.
The Iranians themselves say that these are just drones activated by agents inside Iran, so they reject the possibility that Israel directly launched these drones. [depuis l’extérieur de l’Iran]. “It's a way for them to say: 'We will not respond,' because they said: If we touch our territory, we will respond,” the general explained.
This rhetoric by the Islamic Republic would hide its limited capabilities.
But Israel is talking about an attack that is more complex than it seems.
He added: “During this attack, two other attacks occurred, one in Syria and the other in Iraq. The attack in Syria destroyed a radar that allowed flights from Israel to be monitored, so it was Iran's forward base that was destroyed. In Iraq, it was a building housing officials from the Pasdaran (Guards of the Islamic Revolution) that was destroyed.”
It was possible that one or two missiles could also reach the Isfahan region, where Iran's largest nuclear facility is located, but the Iranians would deny this information.
“It allows the Israelis to say: As you can see, we are able to strike as far as Isfahan” (1,500 kilometers), he continued, adding that the sent missiles could also allow the Jewish state to collect information about the Iranian defense system.
Should we wait for another attack?
According to the general, this raid could only be a means of reconnaissance and preparation, and that it was in Israel’s interest to attack Iran again.
“The ultimate effect of the Israelis is to prevent Iran from having atomic weapons, but we know that the Iranians are not far from having them, but they do not have them, so there is a window of opportunity in which we must strike Iran.” Mr. Trinquand said.
Even if destroying Iranian nuclear sites is very complex and requires the participation of the Americans in particular, it is in the Israelis’ interest for the Iranians to escalate.
Last week, Iran sent more than 200 missiles and drones to Israel in response to the attack on its embassy in Damascus, Syria, earlier this month.
