It's actually the El Niño phenomenon that explains this That's even before 2024 not started, Many experts predicted That's the new year 2023 will break a record. El Niño is a climate phenomenon that originated in the Pacific Ocean, and returns at intervals of two to seven years, each time contributing to an increase of about a tenth of a degree Celsius in the average temperature of the planet (and a good percentage). Half a degree more in the Pacific).
Since this average temperature has already started this year on an abnormally high plateau, it will not take much for it to exceed 2023. This abnormally high plateau is of course due to human action: according to preliminary data from the Weather Forecasting Organization Globalism. The average temperature in 2023 was 1.4 degrees Celsius higher than the average from the 1850s to the 20th century, while the human contribution alone would be 1.28 degrees, according to appreciation Published in November. So, it won't take much in 2024, for the first time, One year reaches the symbolic threshold of one and a half degreesIt is this threshold that all countries committed not to exceed when they signed the Paris Agreement in 2015.
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Another comparative calculation: according to note From the Japan Meteorological Agency issued on December 22, 2023, the temperature was 0.53°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average. This is a number that tends to confirm fears of accelerating global warming.
It's not just temperature changes that need to be monitored this year. Traditionally, an El Niño year brings more droughts to South America, Australia and Southeast Asia, as well as disrupting atmospheric currents. The positive: perhaps more rain in the Horn of Africa that it really needs.
The El Niño phenomenon usually fades in the spring. According to an advisory published by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in November, there was a 50/50 chance of experiencing a “strong” El Niño from January to March, and a two out of three chances of the phenomenon occurring. In its “moderate” version it will last from April to June. A “strong” El Niño causes them to occur More extreme weather events.
