The fall of the fortified town of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region represents a strong blow to the prestige of the Ukrainian army, which must try to fill the gaps despite the noticeable slowdown in Western aid.
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“What made the Russians successful at the moment is the fact that they were able to send a lot of resources, both personnel and weapons and vehicles, to carry out the attack on Avdiivka,” said a relative of retired Brigadier General Gaston Coté.
In an interview on the Le Bellin program, Mr. Coté explained that the situation of the two brigades that defended the city had become unbearable.
“[Les Russes] “They have managed to achieve fairly impressive control, actually 7 to 1 in terms of personnel deployed on the ground,” he told.
Through continuous attacks, with resources that Ukraine has no chance of competing with, the Russian army was able to flood the sides of the city, thus endangering the defense and supply lines of the Ukrainian army.
In these circumstances, “the only solution to avoid a massacre against the Ukrainian army was withdrawal,” says the specialist.
How important is the small town of Avdiivka?
At the strategic level, “Avdiyevka is not necessarily an important city,” emphasizes Mr. Côté. It was an old city where there were coal mines.
However, the lands surrounding the municipality provided the Ukrainians with excellent positions to repel Russian attacks. Which explains why it took the Russian army two years to capture this city.
“Around Avdiivka, there were small hills that provided a rather strong and interesting defence,” says Mr Côté.
Beyond this stronghold, to the northwest of the city, the terrain turns into agricultural plains, and from then on, it becomes more difficult to defend against tanks and the model of “mobile warfare” used by Russia.
During the winter months, the Russians will thus be able to exploit this gap in this sector “since the ground is still frozen, but once spring starts, if there is heavy rain in the sector, to that point, the brigadier explains: “It becomes a huge swamp.”
In spring conditions, the phenomenon of rasputitsa – that sea of mud that forms on farmland due to melting snow and spring rains – will significantly slow down the advance of tanks.
However, Mr. Côté is certain that the Russians will try to exploit “to the maximum” the opportunity that arises before them “to pursue the retreating Ukrainian forces.”
***Watch the interview with Gaston Côté in the video above***
