The El Niño weather phenomenon is present, and this natural warming of a portion of the Pacific Ocean waters is well known to have an effect on the weather in the rest of the world. With the various heat waves currently affecting Europe, Asia and the United States, are we really witnessing the consequences of El Niño 2023?
El Niño is indeed an event that contributes to a warming of the atmosphere, and the warmest year on record occurred in 2016, during the El NinoEl Nino Intense. Is El Niño 2023 really responsible, in part or in whole, for the sundries waveswaves to heatheat In the world ? The United States, China and, of course, Europe are currently facing record temperatures. The role of El Niño is a frequently used argument social networkssocial networks On the part of some climate skeptics who refute the idea that current heat waves have been exacerbated by emissionsemissions to Greenhouse gasesGreenhouse gases. However, the 2023 El Niño event is so recent (see the Pacific red band on the globe below) that it will have an impact on the temperature extremes we are currently experiencing in several regions of the Northern Hemisphere.
The effect of El Niño is felt for 6 months to 1 year after its implementation
I’abnormalityabnormality Warm waters in the tropical Pacific reached +1°C in mid-July, just above the official threshold needed to speak of El Niño of +0.8°C. This phenomenon will continue to worsen throughout the summer, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) It expects +1.9°C in August, +2.3°C in September, +2.6°C in October, +2.7°C in November and the exceptional level of +2.9°C in December, as shown in the curve below.
So El Niño will be intense, a Super El Nino According to this organization (though other weather organizations don’t agree), but that doesn’t happen in a few days: the water takes several weeks or months to get warm, and then the atmosphere also takes several months to warm up. The effects of El Niño 2023 on the weather on the American, Asian and African continents will only appear from the end of the year, and especially during 2024. Remember that the 2015 El Niño peaked in December of the same year, and then it was the 2016 that was marked by extreme heat: the effects of El Niño 2015 and the Global WarmingGlobal Warming May add several months to a later year. Same note for the 1997 El Niño, which was followed by a global heat peak in 1998.
In addition, in relation to the current year, the year 2023 began to be characterized by record temperatures from April, both on land and in the oceans: the El Niño phenomenon was not yet present in the spring when the planet’s temperature was already high.
The European heat wave can never be linked to El Niño
On the other hand, to date, the possible effects of El Niño in relation to the European continent have not yet been established, even several months after its creation: the consequences of this warming anomaly in the Pacific Ocean are evident and significant in the United States, in Australia, in Asia, or even in South America. But it seems that this phenomenon has no effect in Europe, otherwise it is not known yet.
On the other hand, it is clear that at the global level, the end of 2023 and 2024 will be marked by new temperature records, due to the intense El Niño phenomenon that will add to the current runaway global warming.
