Donald Trump is moving like a roller on the road towards winning the Republican Party nomination in the presidential elections scheduled for November, but the first opinion polls have revealed some weaknesses that may hinder his regaining the White House.
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The former president emerges from the primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire with clear victories over Nikki Haley, the only competitor still in the race. But behind these successes are concerns about his ability to attract the independents and moderate Republicans he needs to defeat Democratic President Joe Biden in November.
Nearly half of New Hampshire voters are registered as independents, a group that closely reflects the mood in swing states that will play a major role in the presidential election. They voted two to one for Nikki Haley, who is more moderate than Donald Trump.
Another red flag for the Trump camp, as a third of New Hampshire Republican voters say they will not support Donald Trump on November 5, according to exit polls.
There is also a trend at work in Iowa. Donald Trump won handily, but according to a poll by the local Des Moines Register newspaper, nearly half of Nikki Haley's supporters would vote for Joe Biden instead of the real estate mogul.
“A lot of people have portrayed Donald Trump's result in Iowa as dominant, but I disagree with that,” says Kenneth Miller, a political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.
“favorable conditions”
He started out as the clear leader and campaigned for two years without his main rivals saying anything unpleasant about him. We have the best conditions there for a primary, but it's barely over 50% in Iowa.
In this state, Donald Trump faced two major candidates. In New Hampshire, he was only challenged by Nikki Haley after abandoning Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, but there was no tidal wave in his favor (55%).
Some observers have not failed to raise questions about Donald Trump's ability to mobilize beyond his most enthusiastic base.
Ron DeSantis has rallied behind the businessman, but he believes that old-fashioned Republicans will not support him against Joe Biden.
“When people who voted for (former President Ronald) Reagan in 1976 — people who have been conservatives all their lives — come to me and say they don't want to vote for Donald Trump again, we have a problem.” Announce.
The lack of appetite among moderate Republicans for the former president's MAGA slogan (“Make America Great Again”) has been reflected in the polls.
In addition to his loss to Joe Biden in 2020, his party lost both chambers of Congress during his term, and also suffered setbacks in the 2022 midterm elections.
Scorched earth
But Donald Trump does not seem ready to change his strategy, which pleases his right-wing fans who clap with both hands for his speeches about the supposed economic collapse of America or illegal immigrants who will destroy the country.
His victory speech on Tuesday was filled with angry tirades, insults and conspiracy theories, including the unprecedented lie in US history that he did not lose the 2020 presidential election.
This is not the only challenge he faces, as he presents himself with 91 charges, and at least one of every four trials could begin before November 5.
Voters were asked whether they would consider Donald Trump worthy of the presidential office if convicted. Just over a third of Iowans and nearly half of New Hampshire residents said no, according to exit polls.
In other words, while many people are willing to forgive him for everything, there are many who are not.
Political scientist Nicholas Creel, of Georgia College and State University, estimates that “even if he could convince 80 to 90 percent (of voters), our presidential elections have been so close recently that the slightest dissent within his party could be fatal.” .
