Portugal emerged in 2014 from the tutelage European Troika After the 2010 crisis, and since November 2015, the country is led by a left-wing government. In recent months, we have seen the proliferation of newspaper articles praising this government’s economic successes. A rebound has already taken place in Portugal in recent years, as elsewhere in Europe. The left in power ran the country without causing any distortion in public accounts or increasing distrust of its creditors.
But honesty also obliges us to say that Portugal’s recovery has not been exceptional for all of this: the economic and social situation of the country is still very difficult in many respects. And its economic trajectory was very close to that of neighboring Spain, which until recent weeks had been run by ultra-conservatives. Overview.
People keep leaving the country
Portugal has lost part of its population since 2008 and is still losing. This is the case for young people, especially eligible young people. So far, the left-wing government has failed to reverse the trend.
Decreasing the number of working population
Employment, which has fallen slightly less than neighboring Spain, has seen a sharp recovery since the end of 2012 and the implementation of strong stimulus measures by the European Central Bank. However, it does so at a pace very similar to that of its Iberian neighbour.
Unemployment, which has exploded lower than in Spain, has again fallen below the pre-crisis level. But a large part of this decline is linked to the decline in the working population, which has lost 280,000 people since 2008 out of a total of 5.6 million people, a drop more than twice that of Spain.
Domestic demand in the recovery period
Portuguese domestic demand is also rising sharply, but it has not yet returned to the pre-crisis level. The pace of her recovery is not different from that of Spain
Public debt is still huge
The left’s rise to power in 2015 did not translate into a significant rise in public spending. Compared to the pre-crisis level, it has fallen more in Portugal than in Spain so far.
Public debt has decreased slightly in recent years. But Portugal’s debt ratio remains one of the highest in Europe with Italy and Greece. There is almost no chance that the country will be able to reduce it to sustainable levels without canceling some of this debt.
There is no improvement in terms of salaries
Portuguese wages, which fell sharply with the crisis, much more than in Spain, still do not recover.
Slight improvement on the uneven side
One of the most positive aspects of the Portuguese left’s balance sheet is the slight decrease in inequality, which has increased with the crisis.
The bottom line: Yes, Portugal is doing the best. But there is (unfortunately) no reason to see it as the new mecca of left-wing politics…
