Limited access to Western capital, targeting of banking institutions and Russian elites, and suspension of infrastructure projects: The series of sanctions targeting Russia since the start of its military operation in Ukraine has been morale staggering. But does it really work? More or less, experts warned.
Posted yesterday at 2:06pm.
According to Marie-Joelle Zahar, professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Montreal, who specializes in conflict resolution, it should be understood from the outset that international sanctions “historically have a relatively low success rate” because they are rarely “global”.
“In other words, it does not come in a standardized way, which means that often, target countries can find what other suppliers are depriving them of. Perhaps this is the case in Russia now.
In this case, m.me Al-Zahar recalls that Vladimir Putin was eager to “conclude an unlimited strategic agreement with China” before invading Ukraine at the beginning of February, to ensure that his closest ally—who had become a major player in the conflict—“narrowly impedes this comprehensive regime of sanctions.” The usefulness of sanctions, for Canada, for example, is above all in informing our people that we will not stand idly by. But basically, its effect is very limited,” said the professor.
Strength above all
Andrea Sharon, director of the Center for Defense and Security Studies at the University of Manitoba, agrees. In his eyes, only a coordinated response would curb the ambitions of the President of Russia. Putin understands only strength. She said a united response involving the United States, Europe, England and NATO was required to sever all financial ties with Russia.
In order to have an effect, it will be necessary to seize all the money of the great oligarch, the economic elite, in short everything that could fuel military aggression.
Andrea Sharon, Professor at the University of Manitoba
Such a strong measure would certainly risk “serious consequences” for the Russian people and even for Western countries, “but the world order is in danger,” asserts M.me Wheel maker. “If we are not prepared to use force, then we should use real sanctions,” she continues. The professor also notes that the UN General Assembly might call in “Uniting for the Preservation of Peace” to apply “unilateral and strong” sanctions, as it did in the 1950s during the war in Korea.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Thursday that the new sanctions will “target 62 individuals and entities, including members of the Russian elite and their families, as well as the Wagner Group and major Russian banks.” “We will impose sanctions on members of the Russian Security Council, including the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Finance and the Minister of Justice,” he said, noting that these retaliatory measures would be “far-reaching.” Because it “will entail significant costs for the Russian elites.” Shortly thereafter, in Washington, US President Joe Biden also announced that elites and four additional Russian banks would be penalized, while more than half of Russian technology imports would be cut off. Mr. Biden intends to defend “every inch of NATO territory,” but he will not send troops to Ukraine.
How far will Putin go?
What should be kept in mind is that “Vladimir Putin will not allow himself to be influenced by anything for now,” says the founder of the Raoul Dandurand Chair for Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Charles Philip David. “It’s an extraordinary note to everyone at the moment: This guy is not easily influenced, he has only one mission on his mind. And he is ready to take his country into the vault to win. Ukraine, as we knew it, will not exist anymore,” David said.
“There are still a series of penalties that can hurt, and that’s where you have to hit,” the specialist adds. According to him, the “ultimate sanction” is to ban Russian banks – as demanded on Thursday by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky – from using the SWIFT messaging system, an essential cog in global finance. Mr. Biden noted that this measure was only an “option” at this point, and the EU does not accept the idea. This would amount to isolating Russia at the banking level. “What’s the first. It’s like saying to Canadians: You can no longer trade in international markets. And that’s nothing,” adds Mr. David.
Another powerful penalty kick, adds Mme Charon, it would be “putting Russia on the air checklist.” “This means that everything that enters Russia is systematically checked, and the question is always asked: Do we want to send it to him? In the long run, it can be really painful,” she says.
“The issue of very severe penalties, as we saw in South Africa during apartheid, is that they always end up hurting the population much more. It involves all kinds of moral and ethical questions that we also have to ask ourselves.”me The flower.