The OECD’s national wealth growth forecast for 2023 places, for once, Italy, Spain and Greece ahead of Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands. The latter two, who support budget austerity, officially entered recession at the end of June. These countries were most affected by rising energy prices, and also suffered from their strong dependence on exports, which is undermined by the slowdown in the Chinese engine. The economies of Italy and the Iberian Peninsula that are less exposed to these developments are taking full advantage of European aid as well as the reforms they have implemented to strengthen their public finances.
Should we conclude that the hawks, the proponents of monetarism and budgetary doctrine as opposed to the doves, who are more lax and indebted, are the “sick men” of the Old Continent? Economists warn that the answer is not clear. If they realize that the advantage today is greater among the countries of the South, they remain cautious about the issue of knowing whether it is cyclical or structural. Or both.
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